Abstract
There have been important criticisms of IPCC recent reports for failing
to communicate the dire nature of the current predicament facing
civilization – so-called “scientific reticence” – as well as for
assuming functional, planetary-effective scale biomass carbon capture
and storage in its survivable scenarios [1-3]. In the light of major
reports released in 2018 [4,5] which underscore the discrepancy
between the current climate trajectory and best-case requirements to
maintain global civilization, the current predicament is often described
as an “existential” crisis [6]. Part of the confusion appears to
stem from the lack of discussion of specific scenarios, such as rapid
arctic methane release [7,8], which are not discussed by the IPCC in
proportion to their catastrophic potential. This scenario is briefly
examined using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE v2
7.50.05 [9]. It is suggested that the results presented here
represent a lower bound to climate disruption since in this set-up,
neither the oceans nor arctic sea ice (a significant and ongoing runaway
feedback [10]) respond to the changes modeled; namely, a sudden
release of stored methane gas.