Variation of geomagnetic index empirical distribution and burst
statistics across successive solar cycles.
Abstract
The overall level of solar activity, and space weather response at
earth, varies within and between successive solar cycles and can be
characterized by the statistics of bursts, that is, time-series
excursions above a threshold. We consider non-overlapping 1 year samples
of the auroral electrojet index (AE) and the SuperMAG-based ring current
index (SMR), across the last four solar cycles. These indices
respectively characterize high latitude and equatorial geomagnetic
disturbances. We suggest that average burst duration τ̅ and burst return
period R̅ form an activity parameter, τ̅/R̅ which characterizes the
fraction of time the magnetosphere spends, on average, in an active
state for a given burst threshold. If the burst threshold takes a fixed
value, τ̅/R̅ for SMR tracks sunspot number, while τ̅/R̅ for AE peaks in the
solar cycle declining phase. Crossing theory directly relates τ̅/R̅ to the
observed index value cumulative distribution function (cdf). For burst
thresholds at fixed quantiles, we find that the probability density
functions of τ̅ and R each collapse onto single empirical curves for AE
at solar cycle minimum, maximum, and declining phase and for (-)SMR at
solar maximum. Moreover, underlying empirical cdf tails of observed
index values collapse onto common functional forms specific to each
index and cycle phase when normalized to their first two moments.
Together, these results offer operational support to quantifying space
weather risk which requires understanding how return periods of events
of a given size vary with solar cycle strength.