The Temperature Inside the Nests of the Diamondback Terrapin, Malaclemys
terrapin, and Its Relationship with the Air Temperature of the Nesting
Site.
Abstract
The diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin), the official state
reptile of Maryland, is an estuarine turtle found along the eastern and
Gulf coasts of the United States. The diamondback terrapin may
experience risks due to increasing global temperatures because they
display temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Terrapins,
through TSD, produce more female offspring than male offspring if their
nest temperatures are relatively warm, leading to ecological issues
should global temperatures get too high. This study used temperatures
from several individual field, monitored nests, along with air
temperatures at the nesting site, recorded in the summer of 2018, to
select a predictive model with the R software package rstanarm. The
model was then used to predict the average nest temperature in the same
nesting site using air temperatures that were recorded during the summer
of 2019. This prediction was then compared to temperatures recorded from
five nests within the nesting site in 2019 to evaluate its predictive
capabilities. A regression spline mixed model (RSMM) was selected for
having the lowest leave-one-out information criterion at 50905.95 LOOIC,
with a standard error of 0.64 LOOIC. The prediction of average nest
temperature developed by the RSMM was given a predictive interval of
95%. We found that the actual temperature of the average nest in 2019
had a prediction coverage of 92.97% from the prediction model, with a
root squared mean error of 1.89oC and a predictive mean absolute error
of 2.10oC. Benefits of the study involve the ability to predict the
future diamondback terrapin nest temperatures within a specific nesting
site so long as future air temperatures within that site are known.