Is it worthwhile to invest in learning? A stormwater management case
study with 1 green infrastructure using Bayesian-based optimization
Abstract
To cope with the uncertainty of green infrastructure planning at city
scale, many cities take an adaptive approach and use learning-by-doing
to improve understanding of the urban systems. However, whether that
learning is worth it has been a challenge to adaptive management
practitioners. In this paper, we propose an evaluation and planning
framework for green infrastructure (GI) to address this issue and
demonstrate its use by an application to the Wingohocking water-shed,
Philadelphia, PA, USA. The framework allows users to specify possible
knowledge gains from near-term actions and assess the impacts of this
learning on subsequent decisions, which enables evaluation of the net
benefits of alternative investment plans. In the case study, we consider
two types of learning: learning to reduce uncertainty and learning to
improve performance. This learning can happen through investments or
knowledge transfer from experience at other locations. Estimates of
cost, performance, and deterioration over time of GI and the prediction
of possible knowledge gains are based on the literature and expert
opinions. The results propose optimal investment strategies over a
25-year planning horizon and describe tradeoffs between the risk of poor
performance and reductions in expected annual stormwater runoff.
Finally, by calculating differences in expected total costs between
non-adaptive, passive adaptive, and active adaptive decision-making, we
quantify the economic value of learning and adaptability.