Abstract

Dense tree stands and high wind speeds characterize the dense temperate rainforests of southern Chilean Patagonia, where landslides frequently strip hillslopes of soils, rock, and biomass. Assuming that wind loads on trees promote slope instability, we explore the role of forest cover and wind speed in predicting mapped landslides with a robust Bayesian logistic regression. We find that more crown openness and higher wind speeds credibly predict higher probabilities of detecting landslides moderately well regardless of topographic location, though much better in low-order channels and on midslope locations than on open slopes. Wind speed has less predictive power in areas that were smothered by tephra fall from recent volcanic eruptions, while the influence of forest cover remains.