Drought in Africa: Understanding and Exploiting the Demand Perspective
Using a New Evaporative Demand Reanalysis
Abstract
In operational analyses of the surface moisture imbalance that defines
drought, the supply aspect has generally been well characterized by
precipitation; however, the same count be said of the demand side—a
function of evaporative demand (E0) and surface moisture availability.
In drought monitoring, E0 is often poorly parameterized by a
climatological mean, by non-physically based estimates, or is neglected
entirely. One problem has been a paucity of driver data—on
temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed—required to
fully characterize E0. This deficient E0 modeling is particularly
troublesome over data-sparse regions that are also home to
drought-vulnerable populations, such as across much of Africa. There is
thus urgent need for global E0 estimates for physically accurate drought
analyses and food security assessments; further we need an improved
understanding of how E0 and drought interact and to exploit these
interactions in drought monitoring. In this presentation we explore ways
to meet these needs. From MERRA-2—an accurate, fine-resolution
land-surface/atmosphere reanalysis—we have developed a
>38-year, daily, global Penman-Monteith reference ET
dataset as a fully physical metric of E0. This dataset is valuable for
examining hydroclimatic changes and extremes. A novel drought index
based on this dataset—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index
(EDDI)—represents drought’s demand perspective, and permits early
warning and ongoing monitoring of agricultural flash drought and
hydrologic drought. We highlight the findings of our examination of
E0-drought interactions and using EDDI in Africa. Using reference ET as
an E0 metric has permitted explicit attribution of the variability of E0
across Africa, and of E0 anomalies associated with canonical droughts in
the Sahel region. This analysis determines where, when, and to what
relative degree each of the individual drivers of E0 affects the demand
side of drought. Using independent estimates of drought across space and
time—CHIRPS precipitation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation
Index for 1982-2015—we examine the differences between drought and
non-drought periods, and between precipitation-forced droughts and
droughts forced by a combination of precipitation and E0.