Abstract
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) seasonal phase-locking behaviors
simulated in 36 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)
models are evaluated for the first time by comparison with 43 CMIP5
models and observations. There are much more aborted ENSO events
(simulated mature phase occurring out of the winter season) in 30 CMIP6
and 33 CMIP5 models than in observations, which indicates that the
reasonable ENSO seasonal phase-locking is still a challenge to
state-of-the-art climate models. Furthermore, the seasonal cycle of the
zonal SST gradient along the equator can explain approximately 30% and
36% of the variance in the ENSO phase locking for CMIP5 and CMIP6,
respectively. Moreover, both the spatial distribution and the phase
change timing of the zonal SST gradient seasonal cycle are crucial for
the ENSO seasonal phase locking. Improvement of the simulating ENSO
phase-locking should be realized by focusing on the seasonal cycle of
the zonal SST gradient.