Abstract
Estimates of Earth’s clear-sky longwave feedback from climate models and
observations robustly give a value of approximately -2 W/m^2/K,
suggesting that this feedback can be estimated from first principles.
Here we derive an analytical model for Earth’s clear-sky longwave
feedback based on a novel spectral decomposition that splits the
feedback into components from surface emission, CO2, H2O, and the H2O
continuum. Analytic expressions are given for each of these terms based
on their underlying physics, and the model can also be framed in terms
of Simpson’s Law and deviations therefrom. We validate the model by
reproducing line-by-line radiative transfer calculations across a wide
range of climates, as well as the spatial dependence of the clear-sky
feedback from radiative kernels. The latter result motivates us to
estimate the spatial pattern of Earth’s clear-sky longwave feedback from
reanalysis data, which shows good agreement with climate model data.
Together, these results show that Earth’s clear-sky longwave feedback,
its spatial variations, and its state-dependence across past and future
climates can be successfully understood from only a handful of physical
principles.