Addressing Challenges in Simulating Inter-annual Variability of Gross
Primary Production
Abstract
A long-standing challenge in studying the global carbon cycle has been
understanding the factors controlling inter–annual variation (IAV) of
carbon fluxes related to vegetation photosynthesis and respiration, and
improving their representations in existing biogeochemical models. Here,
we compared an optimality-based mechanistic model and a semi-empirical
light use efficiency model to understand how current models can be
improved to simulate IAV of gross primary production (GPP). Both models
simulated hourly GPP and were parameterized for (1) each site–year, (2)
each site with an additional constraint on IAV (CostIAV), (3) each site,
(4) each plant–functional type, and (5) globally. This was followed by
forward runs using calibrated parameters, and model evaluations at
different temporal scales across 198 eddy covariance sites. Both models
performed better on hourly scale than annual scale for most sites.
Specifically, the mechanistic model substantially improved when drought
stress was explicitly included. Most of the variability in model
performances was due to model types and parameterization strategies. The
semi-empirical model produced statistically better hourly simulations
than the mechanistic model, and site–year parameterization yielded
better annual performance for both models. Annual model performance did
not improve even when parameterized using CostIAV. Furthermore, both
models underestimated the peaks of diurnal GPP in each site–year,
suggesting that improving predictions of peaks could produce a
comparatively better annual model performance. GPP of forests were
better simulated than grassland or savanna sites by both models. Our
findings reveal current model deficiencies in representing IAV of carbon
fluxes and guide improvements in further model development.