Multi-year incubation experiments boost confidence in model projections
of long-term soil carbon dynamics
Abstract
Global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks may decline with a warmer
climate. However, model projections of changes in SOC due to climate
warming depend on microbially-driven processes that are usually
parameterized based on laboratory incubations. To assess how lab-scale
incubation datasets inform model projections over decades, we optimized
five microbially-relevant parameters in the Microbial-ENzyme
Decomposition (MEND) model using 16 short-term glucose (6-day), 16
short-term cellulose (30-day) and 16 long-term cellulose (729-day)
incubation datasets with soils from forests and grasslands across
contrasting soil types. Our analysis identified consistently higher
parameter estimates given the short-term versus long-term datasets.
Implementing the short-term and long-term parameters, respectively,
resulted in SOC loss (–8.2 ± 5.1% or –3.9 ± 2.8%), and minor SOC
gain (1.8 ± 1.0%) in response to 5 ºC warming, while only the latter is
consistent with a meta-analysis of 149 field warming observations (1.6 ±
4.0%). Comparing multiple subsets of cellulose incubations (i.e., 6,
30, 90, 180, 360, 480 and 729-day) revealed comparable projections to
the observed long-term SOC changes under warming only on 480- and
729-day. Integrating multi-year datasets of soil incubations (e.g.,
> 1.5 years) with microbial models can thus achieve more
reasonable parameterization of key microbial processes and subsequently
boost the accuracy and confidence of long-term SOC projections.