The 2021 Mw7.0 Miyagi-Oki earthquake, northeastern Japan, nucleated from
deep plate boundary: Implications for the initiation of the M9
earthquake cycle
Abstract
Following the 2011 M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, the interplate seismicity
drastically increased in the downdip extension; however, it disappeared
within the rupture area. An Mw7.0 earthquake occurred in the downdip
extension off Miyagi in March 2021, followed by an Mw6.7 earthquake in
May 2021. To examine the initial evolution of the next M9 earthquake
cycle, we examined the regional seismicity and source processes of the
two M~7 earthquakes. We found that the March Mw7.0
earthquake was nucleated at a conditionally stable patch where repeating
earthquakes emerged after the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The earthquake
initiation from a conditionally stable patch at the deep plate boundary
is probably a transient feature in the postseismic period of the
previous M9 earthquake. The stress enhancement caused by the Mw7.0 event
facilitated the subsequent May Mw6.7 earthquake. These two
M~7 earthquakes ruptured the western seismic patches of
the 1978 Mw7.5 Miyagi-Oki earthquake, which is the most recent typical
earthquake in an ~40-year interval of
M~7.5 earthquake sequence, and loaded the eastern
shallow seismic patches for the sequence. Interplate seismicity in the
updip area disappeared after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Assuming
that the spatial pattern of interplate earthquakes will be restored to a
situation similar to that before the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, the
seismically active area should gradually expand to the updip area.
Continued monitoring of interplate seismicity is essential to examine
how plate-locking evolves during the M9 earthquake cycle.