Abstract
Previous experiments and modeling on the nucleation process of an
earthquake reveal accelerating slip and development of a final patch of
fixed or expanding length, but whether the nucleation phase is spatially
large enough to be detected in real-Earth conditions with durations long
enough to be helpful is unknown. This study performed a new round of
simulation of the nucleation process based on the rate-and-state
friction law. Our results reveal the development of a weakening-zone
core where stress releases continuously, which expands first to a
dimension less than the half fault length then shrinks to a final length
before re-expanding, consistent with seismicity migration before large
subduction earthquakes. Onset times of the weakening-zone core are weeks
before large subduction earthquakes under high loading rate but years
for continental faults with loading rate below 10mm/yr. The onset of
weakening-zone core is marked by fault-length-dependent slip
rates>3.6-4.8 times the loading rate.