Survival and Breeding Response of a Sea-ice Obligate Seabird Following
the Unprecedented Low Extent of Winter Ice in the Bering Sea
Abstract
Sea ice extent in the Bering Sea during the winter of 2017–2018 was the
lowest on record with ice cover attaining less than half the long-term
average. Mandt’s Black Guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii), one of the
few Arctic ice-obligate seabirds, typically winters in the Marginal Ice
Zone over the Bering Sea shelf, occurring as far south as the shelf
break. Adult survival and breeding biology of the species has been
studied since 1975 at a breeding colony near Point Barrow, Alaska in the
western Beaufort Sea, with nonbreeding distribution and movements
monitored since 2011 with light-sensitive geolocators. Preliminary
analysis of geolocators retrieved at the start of the 2018 breeding
season indicates guillemots wintered further north than in any previous
year with most birds remaining near the Bering Strait or in the southern
Chukchi Sea. It appears the lack of sea ice in the traditional wintering
area and resulting anomalous winter distribution had a major effect on
the survival and condition of Mandt’s Black Guillemot in the Western
Arctic, although direct causative factors have yet to be determined.
Adult overwinter apparent mortality was the highest on record with 32
percent of the birds breeding in 2017 failing to return to the colony,
compared to 11 percent apparent overwinter mortality for the period
1976–2013. Of the 70 pairs occupying nest sites in 2018, only 50 pairs
produced eggs. Of those 50 nests, nearly one-half had no incubation
occur after egg laying. Nonbreeding by established breeders occupying
nest sites and abandonment of nests immediately after egg laying were
extremely rare in earlier years. The number of breeding birds in 2018
was the lowest in four decades and punctuates a long-term decrease in
the population since 1989. Analysis of geolocation and behavioral data
from the 2017–2018 nonbreeding period will lend insights into how the
anomalous winter sea ice conditions might have contributed to the
observed high mortality and poor condition of surviving birds. Decreased
prey availability in the Arctic Basin and Bering Strait regions,
compared to the southern Bering Sea shelf, could be a factor, as could
atypical oceanographic and sea ice conditions in the winter Marginal Ice
Zone.