Food-Energy-Water Security Considering Climate and Land Use Changes in
the São Francisco River Basin
Abstract
Brazil is one of the richest countries in water resources and is
currently the second largest global supplier of food and agricultural
products. Furthermore, more than 70% of Brazilian energy comes from
hydropower. Therefore, to ensure water availability for future
generations it is necessary to consider the Nexus thinking (water, food,
energy, ecosystem service, and social aspects integrated) in the
country. However, few studies have been developed considering the Nexus
thinking in Brazil. Understanding the interconnected risks and
vulnerability to these sectors under climatic change conditions is
crucial for the development of sustainable resources management plans
and for mitigating competition among them. Here, we assess the
Food-Energy-Water Nexus considering climate and land cover and land use
changes (LCLUC) scenarios in the São Francisco river basin. This basin
is the third largest basin in Brazil and supplies water to approximately
14 million inhabitants, with the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte
being the most populous area. The São Francisco river has been used for
water supply, irrigation, agriculture and transportation by waterways,
but its preponderant use is for hydroelectric power generation. However,
this basin has been suffering from LCLUC and drought that has plagued
the region since 2012. In addition, part of the river flow has been
diverted due to the transposition of the São Francisco river to supply
water to the semi-arid region of Brazil. We will calibrate and evaluate
the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using hydrometeorological data
from 1972 to 2017. We will also use LCLUC scenarios from the OTIMIZAGRO
model and regional climate change models (HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5, RCP 4.5
and 8.5). Then, we will compute the demands of water by different
sectors and integrate water availability and demand to reach an optimal
water use based on the Nexus thinking. Our results will provide
decision-makers with information regarding the risks and trade-offs and
will support water resources management decisions in order to allocate
scarce water resources toward food or energy.