Abstract

Simulating magma propagation pathways requires both a well-calibrated model for the stress state of the volcano and models for dike advance within such a stress field. With the purpose of establishing a framework for calculating computationally efficient and flexible shallow magma propagation scenarios, we develop three-dimensional models for the stress state of volcanoes with complex topographies and edifice histories as well as a new simplified three-dimensional model of dike propagation using the stress state of the volcano as input. Next, we combine all these models to calculate shallow dike propagation scenarios for complex caldera settings. The resulting synthetic magma pathways and eruptive vent locations broadly reproduce the variability observed in natural calderas.