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\begin{document}

\title{A model integrating satellite-derived shoreline observations for
predicting fine-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise
across large coastal regions}



\author[1,2]{Sean Vitousek}%
\author[3]{Kilian Vos}%
\author[3]{Kristen D Splinter}%
\author[1]{Li Erikson}%
\author[1]{Patrick L Barnard}%
\affil[1]{USGS Pacific Coastal \& Marine Science Center}%
\affil[2]{University of Illinois at Chicago}%
\affil[3]{University of New South Wales - Sydney}%


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  \date{May 08, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Satellite-derived shoreline observations combined with dynamic shoreline
models enable fine-scale predictions of coastal change across large
spatiotemporal scales. Here, we present a satellite-data-assimilated,
``littoral-cell''-based, ensemble Kalman-filter shoreline model to
predict coastal change and uncertainty due to waves, sea-level rise, and
other natural and anthropogenic processes. We apply the developed
ensemble model to the entire California coastline (approximately 1,350
km), much of which is sparsely monitored with traditional survey methods
(e.g., Lidar/GPS). Water-level-corrected, satellite-derived shoreline
observations (obtained from the CoastSat toolbox) offer a nearly
unbiased representation of in-situ surveyed shorelines (e.g., Mean Sea
Level elevation contours) at Ocean Beach, San Francisco. We demonstrate
that model calibration with satellite observations during a 20-year
hindcast period (1995 to 2015) provides a nearly equivalent model
forecast accuracy during a validation period (2015 to 2020) compared to
model calibration with monthly in-situ observations at Ocean Beach. When
comparing model-predicted shoreline positions to satellite-derived
observations, the model achieves an accuracy of \textless{}10 m RMSE for
nearly half of the entire California coastline for the validation
period. The calibrated/validated model is then applied for multi-decadal
simulations of shoreline change due projected wave and sea-level
conditions while holding the model parameters fixed. By 2100, the model
estimates that 25 to 70\% of California's beaches may become completely
eroded due to sea-level rise scenarios of 0.5 to 3.0 m, respectively.
The~satellite-data-assimilated modeling system presented here is
generally applicable to a variety of coastal settings around the world
owing to the global coverage of satellite imagery. ~%
\end{abstract}%



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