How do people behave during flash floods and why? Lessons for the
prediction of the human vulnerability dynamics in short-fuse weather
events
Abstract
Social scientists have a long history of documenting disasters and
natural extreme events’ behavioural response through the collection of
perishable post-event data (Gruntfest 1977; Quarantelli and Dynes, 1977;
Stalling, 1987; Quarantelli, 1997, 2003; Drabeck, 1999). Such empirical
and theoretical foundations constitute a strong background to understand
crisis responses and advance our knowledge of the drivers of human
behavioural responses to fast evolving weather-related events. Outputs
from this field of research show that public warning and behavioural
response is a social process that takes several phases before a
protective action is put in place (Mileti, 1995; Trainor et al., 2008,
Parker et al., 2009, Lindell et al., 2004). These authors identified
factors related to the characteristics of the hazard, the warning
information characteristics, the situational and personal
characteristics of the receiver and the socio-cultural context as strong
determinants of the public behavioural response. In fast-moving events
like flash-floods, the amount of time available to detect the threat and
respond to it is so limited that protective actions often consist in
dealing with contingent situations triggered by the irruption of
dangerous circumstances in the middle of daily life activities and
routines (Ruin et al., 2008, 2009; Terti et al., 2015). Understanding
how people actually detect potentially dangerous circumstances and
manage to timely adapt their routine to cope with the speed of the
hazard evolution remains a challenge. Based on insights from post-event
interviews, online surveys were used to quantitatively document
behavioural responses associated with 3 catastrophic flash flood events
that happened in southern France in 2014 and 2015. The coupled analysis
of responses to these surveys with hydrometeorological parameters allows
to better understand the link between the event magnitude and
self-protective behaviours in the context of short-fuse weather events
as flash floods. Knowledge gained from such an integrated approach is
necessary for drawing lessons for the development of coupled
human-natural system modeling and the prediction of the human
vulnerability dynamics in short-fuse weather events.