Updated assessment suggests >1.5°C global warming could
trigger multiple climate tipping points
Abstract
Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system
becomes self-perpetuating beyond a forcing threshold, leading to abrupt
and/or irreversible impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational,
and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global ‘core’
tipping elements and regional ‘impact’ tipping elements and their
temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C
above pre-industrial already lies within the lower end of some tipping
point uncertainty ranges. Several more tipping points may be triggered
in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5-2°C global warming, with many more
likely at the 2-3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories.
This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate
change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early
warning capability, and adaptation strategies.