Local and remote causes of the recent North Atlantic cold anomaly: an
adjoint sensitivity study
Abstract
The mid-to-high latitude North Atlantic features cold temperature
anomalies on interannual timescales. For example, in 2015 a region of
open ocean southwest of Greenland reached a record low temperature
relative to the period 1880-2015. Such rapid drops in upper ocean heat
content have been linked to impacts on the North Atlantic Oscillation
and European climate (e.g. heat waves induced by changing atmospheric
circulation patterns). Despite their potential importance for regional
climate, the specific mechanisms that induce these interannual cold
anomalies are still not well understood. In particular, the relative
importance of changes in surface forcing compared with upwelling of deep
ocean cold anomalies (i.e. those below 500 m) in establishing the 2015
cold anomaly is a topic of intense debate. Here we use an
observationally-constrained ocean model in adjoint mode to calculate the
sensitivities of upper ocean heat content to local and remote surface
forcing. Adjoint methods allow us to quantify the relative contributions
of wind stress and net heat flux in producing the 2015 cold anomaly.
Wind stress contributes to the cold anomaly via both (1) strengthening
surface latent and sensible heat losses and (2) inducing changes in
ocean circulation. Net heat flux contributes to the cold anomaly by
inducing heat loss in both local and upstream waters. We also use
adjoint methods to calculate (1) the source waters that contributed to
the cold anomaly and (2) regions that may have contributed to the cold
anomaly by inducing changes in synoptic-scale ocean circulation.
Furthermore, we examine the large-scale context by calculating the
sensitivities of subpolar gyre heat content to surface forcing and the
ocean state. Our results suggest that surface forcing, particularly the
extreme heat loss event in the winter of 2013-2014, played a dominant
role in producing the 2015 cold anomaly.