Greater than averages: how metrics of extreme weather are trending
differently than averages would suggest
Abstract
Upon the backdrop of steadily rising global average temperatures, it is
the extreme weather events that are arguably more important and
impactful than changing averages – especially on human health. This
research examines trends in North America of three different parameters
of extreme temperature events important to human thermal comfort and
public health: their frequency, duration, and spatial extent. Most of
the changes are expected; that is, with warmer temperatures there are
more frequent extreme heat events that are lasting longer and covering
more area. However, we highlight some intriguing divergences from this
pattern. For example, despite quickly rising autumn temperatures in
northern Canada, a concurrent decrease in temperature variability is
resulting in extreme heat events remaining stable and is instead
manifest more as significant decreases in extreme cold events. In parts
of the western US, even though there is no significant trend in autumn
mean temperatures, there is a significant rise in extreme cold events.
And, in the southern High Plains in summer, despite little trend in
averages, a more negative skew to the distribution is nonetheless
leading to significant increases in heat events. Seasonal and geographic
variability in the trends of extreme dew point events is also explored.
For example, increases in extreme humidity events are ubiquitous
throughout most of Canada, particularly in summer; but the US has a
northeast (increasing humid events) to southwest (increasing dry events)
dichotomy that is strongest in winter. While such nuances might
complicate our efforts to broadly generalize the message of climate
change, these distinctions suggest a renewed emphasis on local- to
regional-scale analyses (rather than larger scales) when providing
actionable climate information for planners and policymakers.