Continuous CH₄ and δ¹³CH₄ Measurements in London Demonstrate
Under-Reported Natural Gas Leakage
Abstract
Assessment of bottom-up greenhouse gas emissions estimates through
independent methods is needed to demonstrate whether reported values are
accurate or if bottom-up methodologies need to be refined. Previous
studies of measurements of atmospheric methane (CH4) in London revealed
that inventories substantially underestimated the amount of natural gas
CH4 1,2. We report atmospheric CH4 concentrations and δ13CH4
measurements from Imperial College London since early 2018 using a
Picarro G2201-i analyser. Measurements from May 2019-Feb. 2020 were
compared to the values simulated using the dispersion model NAME coupled
with the UK national atmospheric emissions inventory, NAEI, and the
global inventory, EDGAR, for emissions outside the UK. Simulations of
CH4 concentration and δ13CH4 values were generated using nested NAME
back-trajectories with horizontal spatial resolutions of 2 km, 10 km and
30 km. Observed concentrations were underestimated in the simulations by
12 %, and there was no correlation between the measured and simulated
δ13CH4 values. CH4 from waste sources and natural gas comprised of 32.1
% and 27.5 % of the CH4 added by regional emissions. To estimate the
isotopic source signatures for individual pollution events, an algorithm
was created for automatically analysing measurement data by using the
Keeling plot approach. Over 70 % of source signatures had values higher
than -50 ‰, suggesting large amounts of natural gas CH4. The analyses
based on model-data comparison of δ13CH4 and on Keeling plot source
signature emission both indicate that emissions due to natural gas leaks
in London are being under-reported in the NAEI. These results suggest
that estimates of CH4 emissions in urban areas need to be revised in the
CH4 emissions inventories. 1 Helfter, C. et al. (2016), Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics, 16(16), pp. 10543-10557 2 Zazzeri, G. et al.
(2017), Scientific Reports, 7(1), pp. 1-13