One-at-a-time Parameter Perturbation Ensemble of the Community Land
Model, version 5.1
Abstract
Comprehensive land models are subject to significant parametric
uncertainty, which can be hard to quantify due to the large number of
parameters and high model computational costs. We constructed a large
parameter perturbation ensemble (PPE) for the Community Land Model
vesion 5.1 with biogeochemistry configuration (CLM5.1-BGC). We performed
more than 2000 simulations perturbing 211 parameters across six forcing
scenarios. This provides an expansive dataset, which can be used to
identify the most influential parameters on a wide range of output
variables globally, by biome, or by plant functional type. We found that
parameter effects can exceed scenario effects and that a small number of
parameters explains a large fraction of variance across our ensemble.
The most important parameters can differ regionally and also based on
the forcing scenario. The software infrastructure developed for this
experiment has greatly reduced the human and computer time needed for
CLM PPEs, which can facilitate routine investigation of parameter
sensitivity and uncertainty, as well as automated calibration.