Moving land models towards actionable science: A novel application of
the Community Terrestrial Systems Model across Alaska and the Yukon
River Basin
Abstract
The Arctic hydrological system is an interconnected system that is
experiencing rapid change. It is comprised of permafrost, snow, glacier,
frozen soils, and inland river systems. Permafrost degradation, trends
towards earlier snow melt, a lengthening snow-free season, soil ice
melt, and warming frozen soils all challenge hydrologic simulation under
climate change in the Arctic. In this study, we provide an improved
representation of the hydrologic cycle across a regional Arctic domain
using a generalizable optimization methodology and workflow for the
community. We applied the Community Terrestrial Systems Model (CTSM)
across the US state of Alaska and the Yukon River Basin at 4-km spatial
resolution. We highlight several potentially useful high-resolution CTSM
configuration changes. Additionally, we performed a multi-objective
optimization using snow and river flow metrics within an adaptive
surrogate-based model optimization scheme. Four representative river
basins across our study domain were selected for optimization based on
observed streamflow and snow water equivalent observations at ten SNOTEL
sites. Fourteen sensitive parameters were identified for optimization
with half of them not directly related to hydrology or snow processes.
Across fifteen out-of-sample river basins, thirteen had improved flow
simulations after optimization and the median Kling-Gupta Efficiency of
daily flow increased from 0.40 to 0.63. In addition, we adapted the
Shapley Decomposition to disentangle each parameter’s contribution to
streamflow performance changes, with the seven non-hydrological
parameters providing a non-negligible contribution to performance gains.
The snow simulation had limited improvement, likely because snow
simulation is influenced more by meteorological forcing than model
parameter choices.