Yifan Cheng

and 6 more

Hydroclimate and terrestrial hydrology greatly influence the local community, ecosystem, and economy in Alaska and Yukon River Basin. A high-resolution re-simulation of the historical climate in Alaska can provide an important benchmark for climate change studies. In this study, we utilized the Regional Arctic Systems Model (RASM) and conducted coupled land-atmosphere modeling for Alaska and Yukon River Basin at 4-km grid spacing. In RASM, the land model was replaced with the Community Terrestrial Systems Model (CTSM) given its comprehensive process representations for cold regions. The microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) atmospheric model were manually tuned for optimal model performance. This study aims to maintain good model performance for both hydroclimate and terrestrial hydrology, especially streamflow, which was rarely a priority in coupled models. Therefore, we implemented a strategy of iterative testing and re-optimization of CTSM. A multi-decadal climate dataset (1990-2021) was generated using RASM with optimized land parameters and manually tuned WRF microphysics. When evaluated against multiple observational datasets, this dataset well captures the climate statistics and spatial distributions for five key weather variables and hydrologic fluxes, including precipitation, air temperature, snow fraction, evaporation-to-precipitation ratios, and streamflow. The simulated precipitation shows wet bias during the spring season and simulated air temperatures exhibit dampened seasonality with warm biases in winter and cold biases in summer. We used transfer entropy to investigate the discrepancy in connectivity of hydrologic fluxes between the offline CTSM and coupled models, which contributed to their discrepancy in streamflow simulations.

Yifan Cheng

and 7 more

The Arctic hydrological system is an interconnected system that is experiencing rapid change. It is comprised of permafrost, snow, glacier, frozen soils, and inland river systems. Permafrost degradation, trends towards earlier snow melt, a lengthening snow-free season, soil ice melt, and warming frozen soils all challenge hydrologic simulation under climate change in the Arctic. In this study, we provide an improved representation of the hydrologic cycle across a regional Arctic domain using a generalizable optimization methodology and workflow for the community. We applied the Community Terrestrial Systems Model (CTSM) across the US state of Alaska and the Yukon River Basin at 4-km spatial resolution. We highlight several potentially useful high-resolution CTSM configuration changes. Additionally, we performed a multi-objective optimization using snow and river flow metrics within an adaptive surrogate-based model optimization scheme. Four representative river basins across our study domain were selected for optimization based on observed streamflow and snow water equivalent observations at ten SNOTEL sites. Fourteen sensitive parameters were identified for optimization with half of them not directly related to hydrology or snow processes. Across fifteen out-of-sample river basins, thirteen had improved flow simulations after optimization and the median Kling-Gupta Efficiency of daily flow increased from 0.40 to 0.63. In addition, we adapted the Shapley Decomposition to disentangle each parameter’s contribution to streamflow performance changes, with the seven non-hydrological parameters providing a non-negligible contribution to performance gains. The snow simulation had limited improvement, likely because snow simulation is influenced more by meteorological forcing than model parameter choices.

Andrew Bennett

and 4 more

Water resources planning often uses streamflow predictions made by hydrologic models. These simulated predictions have systematic errors which limit their usefulness as input to water management models. To account for these errors, streamflow predictions are bias-corrected through statistical methods which adjust model predictions based on comparisons to reference datasets (such as observed streamflow). Existing bias-correction methods have several shortcomings when used to correct spatially-distributed streamflow predictions. First, existing bias-correction methods destroy the spatio-temporal consistency of the streamflow predictions, when these methods are applied independently at multiple sites across a river network. Second, bias-correction techniques are usually built on simple, time-invariant mappings between reference and simulated streamflow without accounting for the hydrologic processes which underpin the systematic errors. We describe improved bias-correction techniques which account for the river network topology and which allow for corrections that are process-conditioned. Further, we present a workflow that allows the user to select whether to apply these techniques separately or in conjunction. We evaluate four different bias-correction methods implemented with our workflow in the Yakima River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States. We find that all four methods reduce systematic bias in the simulated streamflow. The spatially-consistent bias-correction methods produce spatially-distributed streamflow as well as bias-corrected incremental streamflow, which is suitable for input to water management models. We also find that the process-conditioning methods improve the timing of the corrected streamflow when conditioned on daily minimum temperature, which we use as a proxy for snowmelt processes

Bart Nijssen

and 4 more

In 2020, renewables became the second-largest source of electricity generation in the United States after natural gas (US EIA, 2021). In recent years, wind energy generation has overtaken hydropower as the dominant source of renewable generation in the United States, but hydropower continues to offer advantages, in particular large-scale storage, that makes it particularly valuable as a complement to other weather-driven renewables. This storage, in the form of reservoirs, is rarely managed exclusively to optimize hydropower generation. Instead, reservoirs are operated for flood control, ecosystem services, irrigation, water supply, navigation, and recreation as well as hydropower. Managing these competing demands in a changing climate with existing infrastructure creates difficult challenges, because all these demands are themselves subject to change as is the electricity demand itself. Yet many climate change impact studies continue to treat rivers as entirely natural systems and water resources infrastructure is ignored or treated as an afterthought. In this presentation, we will discuss recent climate change impact studies in both the northwestern and southeastern United States in which we quantified the effects of regulation on discharge and other variables. We will make the case that to develop new strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change, it is paramount to account for humans as active agents in the hydrologic cycle. The first study focuses on the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest, the main hydropower producing region in the United States, and examines the effect of accounting for regulation on changes in high and low flow extremes. The second study focuses on the southeastern United States and evaluates the effects of regulation on estimated changes in flow, stream temperature, and habitat suitability. US EIA, 2021: Monthly Energy Review, July 2021. www.eia.gov/mer [Last accessed on 8/3/2021].