Role of fluid on earthquake occurrence: Example of the 2019 Ridgecrest
and the 1997-2016 Central Apennines sequences
Abstract
This paper focuses on the study of the temporal evolution of seismicity
and the role of fluids during major earthquake sequences that occurred
in the central Apennines and Eastern California Shear Zone-Walker Lane
belt over the last two decades: The 1997 Colfiorito sequence, the 2009
L’Aquila sequence, the 2016 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, and the 2019
Ridgecrest sequence. The availability of different high-quality seismic
catalogs offers the opportunity to evaluate in detail the temporal
evolution of the earthquake’s size distribution (or b-value) and propose
a physical explanation based on the effect of the fluid flow process in
triggering seismicity. For all seismic sequences, the b value time
series show a gradual decrease from a few months to one year before
mainshocks. The gradual decrease in the b value is interpreted in terms
of coupled fluid-stress intensity as a gradual increase in earthquake
activity due essentially to the short-term to intermediate-term
pore-fluid fluctuations. For the 2016 Amatrice-Norcia sequence and the
2019 Ridgecrest sequence, the temporal variation of b value during the
foreshock sequence is characterized by a double b value minimum
separated by a short-lived b value increase as observed in laboratory
experiments on water-saturated rocks. Based on laboratory experiments
results, the observed short–term fluctuation of b value is presented
here as an accelerating cracks growth due essentially to the fluid flow
instability. Despite that the occurrence of seismic precursors could
have been predictable in areas with high dense seismic networks, the
different b value time series show difficulty to establish a
correspondence between the duration of the foreshock activity and the
magnitude of the next largest expected earthquake. This may suggest that
the spatial and temporal evolution of fluid migration controls the size
of the ruptures.