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Measuring the impact of a new snow model using surface energy budget process relationships
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  • Jonathan Day,
  • Gabriele Arduini,
  • Irina Sandu,
  • Linus Magnusson,
  • Anton Beljaars,
  • Gianpaolo Balsamo,
  • Mark Rodwell,
  • David Richardson
Jonathan Day
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Gabriele Arduini
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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Irina Sandu
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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Linus Magnusson
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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Anton Beljaars
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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Gianpaolo Balsamo
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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Mark Rodwell
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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David Richardson
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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Abstract

Energy exchange at the snow-atmosphere interface in winter is important for the evolution of temperature at the surface and within the snow, preconditioning the snowpack for melt during spring. This study illustrates a set of diagnostic tools that are useful for evaluating the energy exchange at the Earth’s surface in an Earth System Model, from a process-based perspective, using in-situ observations. In particular, a new way to measure model improvement using the response of the surface temperature and other surface energy budget (SEB) terms to radiative forcing is presented. These process-oriented diagnostics also provide a measure of the coupling strength between the incoming radiation and the various terms in the SEB, which can be used to ensure that improvements in predictions of user relevant properties, such as 2m temperature, are happening for the right reasons. Correctly capturing such process relationships is a necessary step towards achieving more skilful weather forecasts and climate projections. These diagnostic techniques are applied to assess the impact of a new multi-layer snow scheme in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’-Integrated Forecast System at two high-Arctic sites (Summit, Greenland and Sodankylä, Finland). The multi-layer scheme is expected to replace a single layer snow scheme in the operational forecasting system, enhancing the 2m temperature forecast reliability and skill across the northern hemisphere in boreal winter.
Dec 2020Published in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems volume 12 issue 12. 10.1029/2020MS002144