Large wildfires in western US exacerbated by tropospheric drying linked
to a multi-decadal trend in the expansion of the Hadley Circulation
Abstract
Analyses of wildfire-climate relationships over North America were
conducted using diverse data including ground-based measurements,
satellite retrievals, and re-analyses for the period 1984-2014. Results
show the western US (WUS) has experienced the most robust trend in
increasing burned area, even though Alaska and central Canada possess
comparable or even stronger warming trends compared to WUS. In addition
to warming, the WUS has been under the influence of multi-decadal trends
in tropospheric relative humidity deficit, reduced cloudiness, increased
surface net insolation, enhanced adiabatic warming and drying from
increased tropospheric subsidence, as well as drying from enhanced
off-shore low-level flow, potentially leading to more abundant dry fuels
and raging large wildfires. These trends are likely the manifestation of
a regional climate feedback that is enabled by the intensification, and
expansion of the North Pacific Subtropical High, associated with a
widening of the subsiding branch of the Hadley circulation under
greenhouse warming.