Abstract
This study introduces four univariate regional indices to improve the
representation of intraseasonal rainfall variability across South
America throughout the year. These indices are constructed using two
distinct approaches: the linear Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF)
method and the unsupervised machine-learning Self-Organizing Maps (SOM)
technique. Both methods are applied to Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)
and precipitation-filtered anomalies in the 30-90-day band over the
South American domain. Results demonstrate that regional indices provide
valuable insights into intraseasonal South American rainfall
variability, including phase and strength, compared to global indices of
the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Despite being computed using only
the South American domain, the regional indices capture the
tropical-tropical MJO teleconnection through the zonal wavenumber-1
structure. The diversity in amplitude and evolution of precipitation,
primarily influenced by tropical-extratropical teleconnections through
Rossby wave trains, is more evident when using the non-linear SOM index.
The regional indices also accurately measure the impacts of
intraseasonal variability on extreme precipitation events over South
America. Case studies, such as the 2013/2014 summer drought episode,
highlight this ability, when a deficient rainy season severely affected
the Southeast Region of Brazil, impacting agricultural production and
hydroelectric power generation. During this episode, the regional
indices show agreement between drought periods and suppressed
precipitation phases, while global indices indicate an inactive MJO
phase. These findings underscore the effectiveness of regional indices
in capturing intraseasonal variability, offering significant
implications for extreme weather prediction and their impacts on South
American water resources and socio-economic activities.