Towards Local-Scale Impacts-Based Flood Early Warnings for Samoa: The
Vaisigano Pilot Project
Abstract
The Vaisigano River which flows through the Apia capital of Samoa is in
a characteristic short and steep catchment conducive to rapid flash
flooding following intense periods of antecedent rainfall. This results
in short early warnings and emergency response lead times. Through the
Government of Samoa’s Vaisigano Catchment Project (VCP) supported by the
Green Climate Fund, technological initiatives to improve the forecasting
of imminent flooding in the catchment which enables longer early
warnings and response lead times were undertaken within a hazard risk
context. In this talk we describe a pilot impacts-based flood
monitoring, early warnings, and decision support system developed
through the VCP and tailored for the Vaisigano River. The system
comprises an integrative real-time automated framework involving the
ingestion of numerical weather prediction rain intensity forecasts,
real-time rainfall, river level and flow monitoring data, precomputed
rainfall-runoff and predictive flood peak and magnitude tools, as well
as estimates of flood inundation exposure and threat to safety at
buildings and on roads for different return period events. Information
is ingested into a centralized, web-based, flood decision support system
(FDSS) portal that enables hydrometeorological officers to monitor,
forecast and alert relevant emergency or humanitarian responders of
imminent flooding with adequate lead time. The FDSS was tested in the
lead up to the 18 December 2020 flooding in the Vaisigano and was able
to alert duty officers of the estimated timing and magnitude of imminent
channel-overtopping with up to 24 hours lead time. We discuss some of
the key challenges and gaps to guide system improvements, as well as
offer recommendations for future work.