Recent trends in the waviness of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime
polar and subtropical jets
Abstract
A feature-based metric of the waviness of the wintertime, Northern
Hemisphere polar and subtropical jets is developed and applied to three
different reanalysis data sets. The analysis first identifies a “core
isertel” along which the circulation per unit length is maximized in
the separate polar (315:330K) and subtropical (340:355K) jet isentropic
layers. Since the core isertel is, by design, an analytical proxy for
the respective jet cores, the waviness of each jet is derived by
calculating a hemispheric average of the meridional displacements of the
core isertel from its equivalent latitude - the southern extent of a
polar cap whose area is equal to the area enclosed by the core isertel.
Analysis of the seasonal average waviness over the time series of the
various data sets reveals that both jets have become systematically
wavier while exhibiting no trends in their average speeds. The waviness
of each jet evolves fairly independently of the other in most cold
seasons and the slow northward creep of the polar jet is statistically
significant. Finally, comparison of the composites of the waviest and
least wavy seasons for each species reveals that such interannual
variability is manifest in familiar large-scale circulation anomalies.