Seismicity at Newdigate, Surrey, during 2018-2019: A candidate mechanism
indicating causation by nearby oil production
Abstract
During 2018-2019, oil was intermittently produced from the Late Jurassic
Upper Portland Sandstone in the Weald Basin, southeast England, via the
Horse Hill-1 and Brockham-X2Y wells. Concurrently, a sequence of
earthquakes of magnitude 3.25 occurred near Newdigate,
~4 km and ~8 km from these wells. The
pattern, with earthquakes concentrated during production from this
reservoir, suggests a cause-and-effect connection. It is proposed that
this seismicity occurred on a patch of fault transecting permeable
Dinantian limestone, beneath the Jurassic succession of the Weald Basin,
hydraulically connected to the Portland reservoir via this permeable
fault and the permeable calcite ‘beef’ fabric within the Portland
sandstone; oil production depressurizes this reservoir and draws
groundwater from the limestone, compacting it and ‘unclamping’ the
fault, reaching the Coulomb failure criterion and causing seismicity. In
principle this model is testable, but required data, notably the history
of pressure variations in the wells, are not currently in the public
domain. The recognition that this instance of seismicity is arguably
caused by human activity may well help inform understanding of
anthropogenic seismicity in other settings. The initial response,
including claims that any connection between this seismicity and oil
production was implausible, before any geomechanical analysis was done,
was inappropriate.