Projecting the Urban Heat Island Effect Using Historical Weather
Patterns and Land Cover
Abstract
An Urban Heat Island is a metropolitan area with higher air and surface
temperatures than surrounding areas. The Urban Heat Island Effect (UHIE)
is a relative measure of the heat in urban heat islands. This research
study investigates how developed land cover and weather trends can be
used to forecast the UHIE with two distinct modeling frameworks.
Projections of future conditions can prepare scientists and communities
to take greener initiatives and adapt their lifestyle to preserve the
Earth. The study focuses on the Greater Austin Region (TX, USA) for
initial feasibility, but aims to extend these methods to a national or
global scale. The first technique uses machine learning (Keras
sequential model) to identify correlations between factors closely
linked to the UHIE. The tested factors were air and surface temperature,
relative humidity, soil moisture, and population growth. Evident
correlations were found and used to begin training a predictive model
(artificial neural network). The second technique uses developed
softwares in QGIS Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE), high
resolution satellite imagery provided by Multi-Resolution Land
Characteristics land cover/land use data, and distance from roadways and
inland water bodies data in order to accurately predict the possible
changes in 2022 to the Greater Austin Region. Major limitations
throughout the research process include regional & temporal data
inconsistencies, the narrow scope of factors and geographic region, and
the time constraint of the NASA SEES internship. Given ample time and
data, these analyses can be used in green efforts to moderate and reduce
the causes of UHIE. They can also aid in further investigating water
contamination, energy consumption, and human health, and make larger
scale environmental simulations possible.