Drought monitoring and forecasting for Lower Mekong Countries via the
Regional Hydrological Extremes Assimilation System (RHEAS)
Abstract
The Lower Mekong is facing an increasing impact of droughts and at the
regional level, the Mekong River Commission (MRC) is mandated to work
with government agencies on creating and distributing flood, drought,
water resource governance and use to improve policy and practice. The
MRC is striving to provide regional, locally calibrated and downscaled
information on drought forecasts and real-time monitoring through a
portal. The Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS)
is built on regionally and locally calibrated Regional Hydrologic
Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework that integrates the Variable
Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Decision Support System for
Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) models, allowing both nowcast and
forecast of drought. This model is co-developed by NASA Jet Propulsion
Laboratory (JPL) and the SERVIR-Mekong teams. In this work, we outline
how the MRC Drought Team’s requirements were met via RHEAS. Driven with
earth observation data, the main aim of this service is to improve
present regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting
services to Lower Mekong countries for their water allocation and
drought mitigation information needs. We provide an overview of the
model calibration and validation methodology, and we find reasonable
reliability of the soil moisture model results with the satellite based
observations from the SMAP and SMOS retrievals. Through this support to
MRC in integrating new drought assessment, monitoring and warning
methodologies using RHEAS, more data and analyses will be available to
support them to develop improved advice on drought early warning to the
National Mekong Committees across the Mekong countries. MRC’s assistance
is envisaged to enable comprehensive, accurate and useful warnings for
the decision-makers at local and provincial level to take effective
action. Ultimately this service is expected to assist farmers to make
preemptive decisions about their water use, cropping and planting
patterns and market decisions which should reduce crop loss and support
livelihoods from farming, including from appropriate compensation to
farmers from the governments, wherever this is in effect.