Guillaume Sérazin

and 6 more

The importance of resolving mesoscale air-sea interactions to represent cyclones impacting the East Coast of Australia, the so-called East Coast Lows (ECLs), is investigated using the Australian Regional Coupled Model based on NEMO-OASIS-WRF (NOW) at $1/4^\circ$ resolution. The fully coupled model is shown to be capable of reproducing correctly relevant features such as the seasonality, spatial distribution and intensity of ECLs while integrating more physical processes, including air-sea feedbacks over ocean eddies and fronts. The thermal feedback (TFB) and the current feedback (CFB) are shown to influence the intensity of tropical ECLs (north of $30^\circ S$), with the TFB modulating the pre-storm sea surface temperature and the CFB modulating the wind stress. By fully uncoupling the atmospheric model of NOW, the intensity of tropical ECLs is increased due to the absence of the cold wake that provides a negative feedback to the cyclone. The number of ECLs might also be affected by the air-sea feedbacks but large interannual variability hamper significant results with short term simulations. The TFB and CFB modify the climatology of sea surface temperature (mean and variability) but no direct link is found between these changes and those noticed in ECL properties. These results show that the representation of ECLs, mainly north of $30^\circ S$, depend on how air-sea feedbacks are simulated, with significant effects associated with mesoscale eddies. This is particularly important for atmospheric downscaling of climate projections as small-scale sea surface temperature interactions and the effects of ocean currents are not accounted for.

Rishav Goyal

and 3 more

Subtropical Western Boundary Currents (WBCs) are often associated with hotspots of global warming, with certain WBC extension regions warming 3-4 times faster than the global mean. In the Southern Hemisphere strong warming over the WBC extensions has been observed over the last few decades, with enhanced warming projected into the future. This amplified warming has primarily been linked to poleward intensification of the mid-latitude westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere. Changes in these winds are often thought of as being zonally symmetric, however, recent studies show that they contain strong zonal asymmetries in certain ocean basins. The importance of these zonal asymmetries for the Southern Ocean has not yet been investigated. In this study, we use an ocean-sea-ice model forced by prescribed atmospheric fields to quantify the contribution of projected zonally asymmetric atmospheric changes in generating future ocean warming and circulation changes in the subtropical WBC regions of the Southern Hemisphere. We find that the projected zonally asymmetric component of atmospheric change can explain more than 30% (>2°C) of the SST warming found in the Tasman Sea and southern Australia region and a sizeable fraction of warming in the Agulhas Current region. These changes in SST in both the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins are found to be primarily driven by changes in the large-scale subtropical ocean gyres, which in turn can largely be explained by changes in the surface wind stress patterns.