Extreme Weather Events and Climate Extremes are Limited by the Duration
of Solar Cycle Irradiance Extremes
Abstract
Understanding the simple mechanism of variable solar irradiance ocean
warming/cooling allows for effective attribution, detection, and
prediction of ocean-related extreme weather events based on solar
activity level and duration. Modern and historical solar and ocean data
were used to find the ocean warms from rising and high solar activity
over any duration, and vice-versa, such as cooling from low activity
during the Dalton Minimum. Equatorial ocean heat content and sea surface
temperature are sensitive to daily total solar irradiance (TSI)
variation and level, and to the upwelled heat accumulation from prior
days sub-surface absorbed solar energy penetration. Equatorial
evaporation from the absorbed solar energy performs as the pump of
Earth’s hydrological system, sourcing atmospheric rivers and associated
extreme weather events, follows a solar cycle pattern. Decadal scale
ocean warming and post-solar cycle maximum El Nino events were
empirically found to occur after solar activity rises above a decadal
average of 120 sfu F10.7cm, equivalent to 94 v2 SIDC sunspot number and
1361.25 W/m2 LASP SORCE TSI. HadSST3 was found to linearly vary with the
annual change in TSI, nominally at 0.5°C/W/year, varying with rate of
TSI change. An empirical F10.7-TSI-SST model was derived combining a
F10.7cm-SORCE TSI correlation model and the HadSST3-TSI sensitivity
factor, predicated on the SWPC Solar Cycle 24 panel 2016 F10.7cm flux
forecast. The author used this model in December of 2015 to uniquely and
successfully predict the 2016 HadSST3 temperature fall to within 0.03°C.
Cross correlation analysis indicate solar minimum La Nina events result
from insufficient TSI over time, producing less equatorial evaporation,
less cloud cover and precipitation, causing drought in the US. The Solar
Modern Maximum that peaked in late 2003 warmed the ocean creating 20th
century climate change via higher than average solar activity, higher
than the 1361.25 W/m2 decadal TSI warming threshold. The 2003 European
heat wave was forced by cumulative high solar activity warming of the
AMO, and from high TSI during the heat wave. The 2013/14 Cold Wave is
partly attributable to periods of lower than solar minimum level
irradiance from October 2013 through February 2014. Future extremes
depend on the duration of future solar cycle activity extremes.