Abstract
Based on the observational dataset SA-OBS and model outputs from the
Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project, this study
investigates heatwaves in Southeast Asia in the current and future
warmer climate. A heatwave is detected when the daily maximum
temperature exceeds the 90th percentile threshold at each grid for at
least three consecutive days. Three characteristics describing the
frequency, duration, and amplitude of heatwaves are examined, including
the sum of heatwave days per year (HWF) satisfying the heatwave
definition, the length of the longest yearly heatwave event (HWD), and
the hottest amplitude of the hottest yearly heatwave event (HWA).
Results indicate that increased global warming is associated with
substantial changes in heatwave characteristics over Southeast Asia,
with more frequent heatwaves, longer heatwave duration, and higher
extreme temperatures. The increase in HWA has a linear growth against
global warming levels with distinct regional differences between the
Maritime Continent and the Indochina Peninsula due to their different
heat content of lower atmospheric boundaries. In contrast, those in HWF
and HWD have nonlinear growth characteristics. The projected warmer
future tends to be associated with a higher risk ratio value with the
occurrence of rarer extreme heatwaves relative to the current climate.
These results reiterate the potential risks of extreme regional
heatwaves if global warming is unrestricted.