Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component
of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and mid-latitude
countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multi-model
ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250km to 25km.
We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and
coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking
algorithms applied uniformly across the models.

There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial
distribution and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several
of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical
cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean,
while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to
both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with
smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10m wind speeds
by 2050.