Extreme value distributions describe interannual variability in the
seasonal North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom
Abstract
The North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom depends on a confluence of
environmental factors that drive transient periods of exponential
phytoplankton growth and interannual variability in bloom magnitude. I
analyze interannual bloom variability in the North Atlantic via extreme
value theory where the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEVD) is
fitted spatially to annual maxima of satellite-measured surface
chlorophyll. I find excellent agreement between the observed
distribution of interannual bloom maxima and those predicted from the
GEVD. The spatial distribution of fitted GEVD parameters closely follows
basin bathymetry where the largest extremes and heaviest distribution
tails are found on the continental shelves and slopes. Trend analyses
suggest weak evidence for changes in GEVD parameters, despite regional
trends in mean chlorophyll levels and sea surface temperature. These
results provide a framework to quantify interannual bloom variability
and call for further work examining how extreme blooms propagate through
food webs and contribute to carbon export.