Abstract
This study examines the impact risk consequences due to asteroid
disruption by a deflection mission. We use an Apophis-like scenario with
a Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) deflection mission in our case studies.
A Monte Carlo framework samples asteroid physical properties from
probabilistic distributions based on the current knowledge of Apophis,
and samples orbital states from an archival orbit solution reflecting
Apophis’ 2.7% peak impact probability. Asteroid disruption is modelled
at deflection time and the fragments are propagated forward to calculate
if and where they impact the Earth. NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact
Risk (PAIR) model estimates the impact damage in terms of affected
population, and the overall scenario impact risk is calculated. Multiple
case studies are explored to generate comparative data for scenarios
where the asteroid is not altered, is always disrupted, or is
conditionally disrupted with deflection impulse. The analysis shows that
disruption increases impact risk for this Apophis scenario
significantly. Even though deflection missions may cause disruption, a
sufficiently strong deflection mission can be effective as risk
decreases from its post-disruption peak with increasing deflection
strength. Results also point to the dependence of risk changes on
physical properties. Objects with a fraction of Apophisâ\euro™ mass
will result in less risk when disrupted. We recommend that disruption
analysis should be a critical factor in future asteroid mitigation
considerations and suggest future research avenues of interest to
mission design as well as planetary sciences.