Thermal History of the Earth: On the Importance of Surface Processes and
the Size of Tectonic Plates
Abstract
Geochemical constraints on mantle temperature indicate a regular
decrease by around 250 K since 3 Ga. However models of Earth’s cooling
that rely on scaling laws for thermal convection without strong plates
are facing a thermal runaway backwards in time, due to the power-law
dependence of heat loss on temperature. To explore the effect of surface
dynamics on Earth’s cooling rate, we build a 2D temperature-dependent
model of plate tectonics that relies on a force balance for each plate
and on Earth-like parameterized behaviors for the motion, creation and
disappearance of plate boundaries. While our model predicts the expected
thermal runaway if plate boundaries are fixed, we obtain an average
cooling rate consistent with geochemical estimates if the geometry of
plate tectonics evolves through time. For a warmer mantle in the past,
plates are faster but also longer (and less numerous) so that the
average seafloor age and resulting heat flux always remain moderate. The
predicted increase in the number of plates forwards in time is in good
agreement with recent plate reconstructions over the last 400 Myr. Our
model also yields plate speed and subduction area flux consistent with
these reconstructions. We finally compare the effect of parameters
controlling mantle viscosity and individual plate speeds to the effect
of localized surface processes, such as oceanization and subduction
initiation. We infer that studies of Earth’s thermal history should
focus on surface processes as they appear to be key control parameters.