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Kilometer-scale simulations of trade-wind cumulus capture processes of mesoscale organization
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  • Leo Saffin,
  • Adrian Lock,
  • Lorenzo Tomassini,
  • Alan M. Blyth,
  • [email protected] Böing,
  • Leif Christopher Denby,
  • John Marsham
Leo Saffin
University of Leeds

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Adrian Lock
Met Office
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Lorenzo Tomassini
UK Met Office
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Alan M. Blyth
NCAS, University of Leeds
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University of Leeds
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Leif Christopher Denby
University of Leeds
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John Marsham
University of Leeds
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Abstract

The international field campaign for EUREC4A (Elucidating the role of clouds and circulation coupling in climate) gathered observations to better understand the links between trade-wind cumulus clouds, their organization, and larger scales, a large source of uncertainty in climate projections. A recent large-eddy simulation (LES) study showed a cloud transition that occurred during EUREC4A (2nd February 2020), where small shallow clouds developed into larger clouds with detrainment layers, was caused by an increase in mesoscale organization generated by a dynamical feedback in mesoscale vertical velocities. We show that kilometer-scale simulations with the Met Office Unified Model reproduce this increase in mesoscale organization and the process generating it, despite being much lower resolution. The simulations develop mesoscale organization stronger and earlier than the LES, more consistent with satellite observations. Sensitivity tests with a shorter spin-up time, to reduce initial organization, still have the same timing of development and sensitivity tests with cold pools suppressed show only a small effect on mesoscale organization. These results suggest that large-scale circulation, associated with an increased vertical velocity and moisture convergence, is driving the increase in mesoscale organization, as opposed to a threshold reached in cloud development. Mesoscale organization and clouds are sensitive to resolution, which affects changes in net radiation, and clouds still have substantial differences to observations. Therefore, while kilometer-scale simulations can be useful for understanding processes of mesoscale organization and links with large scales, including responses to climate change, simulations will still suffer from significant errors and uncertainties in radiative budgets.