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A benchmark of Europe climate response to land use transitions in regional climate model simulations
  • Bo Huang,
  • Xiangping Hu,
  • Francesco Cherubini
Bo Huang
Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Xiangping Hu
Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)
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Francesco Cherubini
Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)
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Abstract

Land use sector is important in stabilizing global mean temperature rise to 2 °C or less, because land use changes are likely to affect the climate system. Changes in the extent and magnitude of local-to-regional climate by anthropogenic modifications of land use are still largely debated. In this study, we simulate and analyze the climate response to different ranges of idealized extreme land cover changes with two regional climate models (COSMO-CLM v.4.8 and WRF v.3.9.1 in EURO-CORDEX (European branch of the international Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-CORDEX initiative) domain. Different experiments are envisioned in this study, including a control run and simulations based on idealized extensive deforestation (replacement of today forestland to bare land or herbaceous vegetation) or afforestation (conversion of today cropland to evergreen needle-leaf forest or deciduous broad-leaf forest). The simulations also include more realistic land cover changes across different land cover classes. The investigated parameters will be the changes of temperature, precipitation, and frequency of temperature extremes at both the entire EURO-CORDEX domain (regional scale) and the changed grids (local scale). Results will also be compared to observation data gathered from satellite retrievals. In the grid cell affected by land cover change, we expect to find temperature changes that are more significant than in non-affected areas. A latitudinal pattern and seasonal variability should also emerge. Of particular interest will be the understanding of the spatial patterns of the climate response to the individual types of land cover changes, their sensitivity to space and location, and the analysis of possible correlations with key vegetation and climate parameters. As biophysical effects from land cover changes shape European climate in different ways, further developments and better understanding of land-climate interactions can ultimately assist decision makers to modulate land management strategies at different scales in light of climate change mitigation and adaptation.