A benchmark of Europe climate response to land use transitions in
regional climate model simulations
Abstract
Land use sector is important in stabilizing global mean temperature rise
to 2 °C or less, because land use changes are likely to affect the
climate system. Changes in the extent and magnitude of local-to-regional
climate by anthropogenic modifications of land use are still largely
debated. In this study, we simulate and analyze the climate response to
different ranges of idealized extreme land cover changes with two
regional climate models (COSMO-CLM v.4.8 and WRF v.3.9.1 in EURO-CORDEX
(European branch of the international Coordinated Regional climate
Downscaling Experiment-CORDEX initiative) domain. Different experiments
are envisioned in this study, including a control run and simulations
based on idealized extensive deforestation (replacement of today
forestland to bare land or herbaceous vegetation) or afforestation
(conversion of today cropland to evergreen needle-leaf forest or
deciduous broad-leaf forest). The simulations also include more
realistic land cover changes across different land cover classes. The
investigated parameters will be the changes of temperature,
precipitation, and frequency of temperature extremes at both the entire
EURO-CORDEX domain (regional scale) and the changed grids (local scale).
Results will also be compared to observation data gathered from
satellite retrievals. In the grid cell affected by land cover change, we
expect to find temperature changes that are more significant than in
non-affected areas. A latitudinal pattern and seasonal variability
should also emerge. Of particular interest will be the understanding of
the spatial patterns of the climate response to the individual types of
land cover changes, their sensitivity to space and location, and the
analysis of possible correlations with key vegetation and climate
parameters. As biophysical effects from land cover changes shape
European climate in different ways, further developments and better
understanding of land-climate interactions can ultimately assist
decision makers to modulate land management strategies at different
scales in light of climate change mitigation and adaptation.