Abstract
This study examines the large-scale factors that govern global tropical
cyclone (TC) formation and an upper bound on the annual number of TCs.
Using idealized simulations for an aqua-planet tropical channel, it is
shown that the tropical atmosphere has a maximum capacity in generating
TCs, even under ideal environmental conditions. Regardless of how
favorable the tropical environment is, the total number of TCs generated
in the tropical channel possesses a consistent cap across experiments.
Analyses of daily TC genesis events reveal further that global TC
formation is intermittent throughout the year in a series of episodes at
a 2-week frequency, with a cap of 8-10 genesis events per episode.
Examination of different large-scale environmental factors shows that
600-hPa moisture content, 850-hPa absolute vorticity, and vertical wind
shear are the most critical factors for this global episodic TC
formation. Specifically, both the 850 hPa absolute vorticity and the 600
hPa moisture are relatively higher at the onset of TC formation
episodes. Once TCs form and move to poleward, the total moisture content
and the absolute vorticity in the main genesis region subside, thus
reducing large-scale instability and producing an unfavorable
environment for TCs to form. It takes $\sim$2 weeks for
the tropical atmosphere to remoisten and rebuild the large-scale
instability associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone before a
new TC formation episode can occur. These results offer new insight into
the processes that control the upper bound on the global number of TCs
in the range of 80-100 annually.