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Global Analysis of Extreme Sea Levels During the Last Interglacial
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  • Sanne Muis,
  • Paolo Scussolini,
  • Jeroen Aerts,
  • Pepijn Bakker,
  • Alessio Rovere,
  • Paolo Stocchi,
  • Philip Ward,
  • Qiong Zhang
Sanne Muis
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Paolo Scussolini
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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Jeroen Aerts
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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Pepijn Bakker
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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Alessio Rovere
MARUM
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Paolo Stocchi
Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
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Philip Ward
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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Qiong Zhang
Stockholm University
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Abstract

Coastal risks are increasing due to the warming of the climate, resulting in rising mean sea levels and changes in storminess. Projections of future coastal flooding rely on global climate models based on greenhouse gas scenarios with inherent large uncertainties. The past warm climate of the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~127,000 years ago) is considered a partial analogue of a future warmer world. Therefore, understanding how coastal systems were affected by changes in atmospheric and relative sea levels during the LIG can inform us about possible future changes. In this contribution we will analyze extreme sea levels and coastal flooding during the LIG. The analysis is based on the hydrodynamic Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM; Muis et al., 2016, doi: 10.1038/ncomms11969). To simulate storm surges during the LIG GTSM will be forced by 6-hourly wind and surface pressure fields from LIG simulations of IPCC-type climate models. Due to non-linear effects, tides and surge levels will be influenced by changes in mean sea level. Therefore, a key input variable is map of regional mean sea levels during LIG. However, there is still considerable uncertainty on sea level high-stands and regional patterns during the LIG. Using output from a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model (GIA), we will model tides and surges for a set of plausible scenarios of relative sea levels and assess sensitivities.