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At Least Nine CMIP6 Climate Models fail the Historical Experiment Test because they do not accurately reproduce the known occurrence of ENSO events and must be withdrawn
  • Keith Alan Potts
Keith Alan Potts
Kyna Keju Pty Ltd

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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The Historical Experiment (HE) data in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Model Intercomparison Project six (CMIP6) should demonstrate that all submitted models accurately simulate the climate of the recent past. I show: none of nine models analysed accurately creates the known occurrence of ENSO events; no model agrees with any other; and average aerosol levels of the South East Asian Plume (SEAP), the South AMerican Plume (SAMP) and the West African Plume (WAP) are too low. Additionally, the SEAP and the SAMP cause the global temperature to rise in all nine models and the WAP in six models. Hence these models and all others which cannot accurately portray the known occurrence of ENSO events should be withdrawn from CMIP6 until they can and use of the IPCC Assessment Report six (AR6) should be paused until the effects of these aerosol plumes on the global temperature is re-evaluated.
07 Oct 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
09 Oct 2023Published in ESS Open Archive