How the Natural & Anthropogenic Aerosol Plume over S. E. Asia caused
the Millennium Drought
Abstract
The Millennium Drought (Drought) from about 1997 to 2008 was one of if
not the most severe drought in recorded Australian history. In 2006
River Murray inflows were 40% below the previous low. Nothing of this
severity occurs without a cause, which must have the same time span, and
the obvious challenge is to identify the culprit and explain how it
caused the Drought. CAWCR Technical Report 26 discussed ENSO; the North
West Shelf Sea Surface Temperature (SST); MSLP SE Australia; the SAM;
and the Neighbouring Tasman Sea SST as possible causes and found that:
local MSLP is the major influence; and ENSO’s influence is created by
“large-scale circulation changes”. The literature and the Bureau of
Meteorology (BoM) also link the positive phase of the Indian Ocean
Dipole (IOD) to drought in Australia. Many researchers have tried to
connect ENSO events to volcanic eruptions without success as their focus
was on large eruptions which injected gases and tephra into the
stratosphere. I include all eruptions in a restricted area, south east
Asia (SE Asia), and show how they create ENSO events by reducing
convection over the Maritime Continent and forcing the Trade Winds to
relax. Simultaneously the volcanic plume moves the regional southern
Hadley Cell south and creates the anomalous, persistent high pressure
over south eastern Australia. Finally by intercepting the solar
radiation by absorption and/or reflection, the volcanic plume cools the
sea surface beneath it - the region where moisture which falls as rain
in SE Australia evaporates - thereby reducing the available moisture in
SE Australia and also creates IOD events. I show that SE Asian tectonic
activity is highly variable and the level of volcanic tephra ejected
during the Drought was treble the average for the 20th century and this
was exacerbated by the anthropogenic aerosols in the same region which
increased by 687% from 1979 to 2000 in September. Thus the Millennium
Drought was caused by the increased levels of volcanic and anthropogenic
aerosols over south east Asia which simultaneously: forced the
circulation changes which created the anomalous high pressure over SE
Australia; ENSO; and IOD events