Abstract
ENSO events are the most significant interannual perturbation of the
climate system. Previous attempts to link ENSO with volcanic eruptions
failed because only large eruptions across the globe, which typically
eject tephra into the stratosphere, were considered. I have analysed all
volcanic eruptions in South Eastern (SE) Asia, about 10ºS to 10ºN and
90ºE to 160ºE (4d), the most volcanically active area in the world with
over 23% of all eruptions in the Global Volcanism Program database
since 1500 occurring here and with 5 volcanoes stated in the literature
to have erupted nearly continuously for 30 years. SE Asia is also the
region where the convective arm of the thermally direct Walker
Circulation occurs driven by the intense equatorial solar radiation
which creates the high surface temperature. The volcanic tephra plume
intercepts some of the solar radiation by absorption/reflection which
cools the surface and heats the atmosphere creating a temperature
inversion compared to periods without the plume. This reduces convection
and causes the Walker Circulation and Trade Winds to weaken. This
reduced wind speed causes the central Pacific Ocean to warm creating
convection there and further weakening the Walker Circulation. With the
reduced wind stress the western Pacific warm pool migrates east. This
creates an ENSO event which continues until the tephra plume reduces,
typically when the SE Asian monsoon commences, and convection is
re-established over SE Asia and the Pacific warm pool migrates back to
the west. Correlations of SE Asian tephra and the ENSO indices are
typically over 0.80 at ρ < 0.02 at 5c below. In recent decades
the anthropogenic SE Asian aerosol Plume (SEAP) has intensified the
volcanic plume in some years from September to November (SON). Using
NASA satellite data and the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset I show
correlation coefficients typically over 0.70 and up to 0.99 at ρ
< 0.01 between the aerosol optical depth (AOD) or aerosol
index (AI) and the ENSO indices on a detrended basis in SON at 5a. If
two events A and B correlate 5 options are possible: (1) A causes B; (2)
B causes A; (3) C, another event, causes A & B simultaneously; (4) It’s
a coincidence; and (5) The relationship is complex with feedback. The
volcanic results: only allow options 1 or 4 as ENSO cannot cause
volcanic eruptions; and are backed up by 4 independent satellite
datasets and NASA’s MERRA-2 reanalysis which assimilates aerosol
observations. I conclude volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols over SE
Asia are the sole cause of all ENSO events.