Scientific Data Quality as Contrasted with Other Sources of Uncertainty
in Accurately Describing Nature
Abstract
Data quality is only one of many uncertainties involved in our attempt
to understand, model and predict complex nonlinear systems and to
identify the properties emerging from them. Perhaps not surprisingly,
less than half of published scientific studies can be successfully
reproduced, with the earth sciences occupying an intermediate position
among the major disciplines. The uncertainty of data quality is only one
factor that contributes to the relatively poor reproducibility of
research studies and the resulting hypotheses. Potentially more
important factors include unsuitably low thresholds for assessing
statistical relevance, inappropriate data manipulation, inadequate
research design, and outright fraud. Data quality for earth science data
can be communicated via measurement errors (e.g., instrument accuracy,
technician practices) and addressed by employing measurement quality
codes, whereas the other aforementioned factors can be identified or
controlled through rigor, methods selection and research competency. A
more difficult source of uncertainty includes biases, assumptions, and
environmental or social influences that affect the judgment and
perceptions of scientists themselves. The difficulty is that many of
these factors operate beyond one’s awareness or control, residing within
automatic processes of the human brain. From continually seeking,
interpreting and projecting patterns (spatial and temporal) to
confabulating answers and relying on heuristics, we are largely at the
mercy of what the brain has evolved to do, which is not necessarily to
accurately perceive the natural world. Peer reviews, precision
instruments, mathematical abstractions and digital computers certainly
assist us in probing nature; nevertheless, we ultimately perceive the
world as we are, rather than as it is. Consequently, a scientifically
“objective” view of nature is being questioned in research ranging
from quantum mechanics to human consciousness. To what extent are the
peculiarities of human brain responsible for the uncertainty and nuances
that we believe exist in nature? Are scientists fooled by a brain that
constructs, rather than simply observes, the world around us? If so, do
we have the tools to deal with this kind of uncertainty?