Estimating the Burden of Heat-related illness morbidity Attributable to
Anthropogenic Climate Change in North Carolina
Abstract
Climate change is known to increase the frequency and intensity of hot
days (daily maximum temperature ≥ 30°C), both globally and locally.
Exposure to extreme heat is associated with numerous adverse human
health outcomes. This study estimated the burden of heat-related illness
(HRI) attributable to anthropogenic climate change in North Carolina
physiographic divisions (Coastal and Piedmont) during the summer months
from 2011-2016. Additionally, assuming intermediate and high greenhouse
gas emission scenarios, future HRI morbidity burden attributable to
climate change was estimated. The association between daily maximum
temperature and the rate of HRI was evaluated using the Generalized
Additive Model. The rate of HRI assuming natural simulations (i.e.,
absence of greenhouse gas emissions) and future greenhouse gas emission
scenarios were predicted to estimate the HRI attributable to climate
change. During 2011-2016, we observed a significant decrease in the rate
of HRI assuming natural simulations compared to the observed. About 15%
of HRI is attributable to anthropogenic climate change in Coastal
(13.40% (IQR: -34.90,95.52)) and Piedmont (16.39% (IQR:
-35.18,148.26)) regions. During the future periods, the median rate of
HRI was significantly higher (78.65%:Coastal and 65.85%:Piedmont),
assuming a higher emission scenario than the intermediate emission
scenario. We observed significant associations between anthropogenic
climate change and adverse human health outcomes. Our findings indicate
the need for evidence-based public health interventions to protect human
health from climate-related exposures, like extreme heat, while
minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.