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\begin{document}

\title{Majority of production shocks for major US crops explained by
fluctuations in planted and harvested area}



\author[1]{Dongyang Wei}%
\author[1]{Kyle Davis}%
\affil[1]{University of Delaware}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Ensuring the stability of food production is essential for adapting food
systems to rising climate variability. Food production instability is
determined by changes in yield, planted area, and the ratio between
planted and harvested area. Yet most research has focused on evaluating
and improving the response of crop yields to climate fluctuations, and
there remains a poor understanding of whether and to what extent changes
in planted and harvested areas affect crop production stability. Here we
use the example of corn in the United States, the country's most widely
produced crop, to evaluate the relative importance of disruptions in
yield, harvested area, and the planted: harvested area ratio in
contributing to production instability. We apply a new time-series shock
detection approach to data covering 2511 counties from the years 1970 to
2020. We find that disruptions in yield, ratio, and planted area explain
34\%, 32\%, and 20\% of total production instabilities, respectively.
Considering multiple shocks could happen simultaneously, 48\% of the
production fluctuations coincided with area (either ratio or planted
area) instabilities. In terms of shocks (negative disruptions), the
proportion of production shocks occurring concurrently with area shocks
rises to 54\%, and with yield shocks rise to 45\%. The greater impact on
production shocks confirms the risk of area shocks to production
fluctuation and food security. Based on correlation analysis between the
county level ratio shocks and the frequencies of six natural disasters,
we show that ratio shocks are significantly correlated with the
occurrence of flood, drought, and hail (P\textless{}0.001). These
findings suggest that fluctuations in planted and harvested area may
determine production instability more frequently than yield and that
decisions about cropping patterns can thus play a crucial role in
stabilizing food production in the face of climate variability.%
\end{abstract}%



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